About this site
Tracking the Gap checks whether Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda are on course to keep their climate promises in two parts of their economies, transport and farming.
How it works, in four steps
- Reading the promises. Our trained model goes through each country's climate plan, its NDC, and marks the sentences that make a promise. The promises shown here were then checked against the documents by hand.
- Checking the data. A second model looks for years where the emissions figures move in an unusual way, and says why each was flagged.
- Drawing two lines. For each sector we draw the old trend, where emissions were heading before 2015, and the current path, where they are heading now. At the target year we compare them with the promise. More on how we check.
- Putting a value on it. The gap between the current path and the promise is valued with the social cost of carbon: an estimate of the harm to the whole world, not a bill for the country.
What it is not
The verdicts judge sectors, not governments. A projection is not a prediction. Our figures are independent estimates, not official ones, so they will not match a government's own count. What this site can't tell you.
Where the numbers come from
- EDGAR, European Commission, emissions
- FAOSTAT, farming detail
- World Bank Open Data, population and economy
- UNFCCC, NDC Registry, the promises
- Rennert et al. (2022), Nature, the social cost of carbon
Who made it
Tracking the Gap is a final year project in BSc Informatics and Computer Science at Strathmore University, Nairobi, by Kelvin Maina. It is independent, and is not affiliated with any of the four governments.
This version
- Pages built
- 09 November 2026
- Emissions data
- 1970 to 2023, EDGAR 2025 (AR5 GWP-100), projected with Prophet
- Trained model
- climatebert_ndc_20261030-0607, published on Hugging Face with its test scores and their limits
- Code version
- 9857753
Your account and your data
If you create an account, we keep your name, your email address, how you signed in, when you joined and the day you last used the site, the countries and topics you choose, how often you open each country page, and your chats with the assistant, including the text of any document you attach to a question (we keep the text, not the file). We keep them only to run those features for you.
Your account is held by Google Firebase, in its sign-in service and its Firestore database. If you log in with an email address and a password, we also email you a 6-digit code each time, as a second check that it is really you. That email is sent through Google's Gmail. We keep the code only in a scrambled form, and only for 5 minutes. Our trained model reads any document you attach on this site's own computer. Your questions, and the parts of your documents they need, are sent to Anthropic's Claude to write the answers.
The person who runs this site can see a list of accounts. For each one, they see the name, the email address, how it signs in, when it joined and was last used, the countries and topics it chose, how often it opened each country page, and how many chats and questions it has. They never see what you write in a chat, or the documents you attach. They can delete an account, with all its data. The site also counts how often each news article is opened, but it does not keep who opened it. Nobody else sees your data.
We keep your data until you delete your account. You can download everything we hold about you, or delete your account and all of it at once, in Settings. Under Kenya's Data Protection Act, 2019, you have the right to see, correct and delete your personal data.